AGP Executive Report

Energy & Water Crisis: Hungary is lifting emergency electricity-saving rules as heat eases, but the Danube drought still leaves Paks running at about 10% capacity and facing cooling limits. Agriculture Support: The government unveiled a HUF106bn (€291mn) rescue package for farmers hit by drought, disasters and market stress, including advance payments for 150,000 producers. Industrial Risk: A fire and reported explosion hit MOL’s Bratislava refinery after a tank incident; MOL says operations weren’t disrupted and no injuries were reported. EU Energy Security: EU gas storage refilling is lagging badly, with the bloc on track to miss its 90% November target. US Sanctions & Trade: The US Senate passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026, with tariff powers up to 100% on countries buying Russian energy—raising uncertainty for India and also drawing criticism from US senators. Regional Wildfires: Serbia is battling major wildfires amid extreme heat and drought, with the army and helicopters deployed. Business/Markets: Hungary’s inflation is at a decade low, while analysts warn the favorable trend may not last. Corporate/Deals: Transgaz and Argent LNG signed an MoU to strengthen a US LNG route via Romania and Moldova toward Central Europe. Politics/Legal: Media reports say former foreign minister Péter Szijjártó could face up to three years in prison over an alleged bribe.

Hungary Retail & Industry Pulse: Hungary’s economy “takes a summer breather” as June retail sales rise again (+4.0% y/y) but industrial output disappoints (industry -1.4% m/m; +4.1% y/y), suggesting demand holds up while production stays choppy. Heatwave, Energy Strain: Record heat keeps hitting Europe hard, with Hungary reporting 41.8°C and thousands of heat-related deaths in Germany; in Hungary, the Danube drought is still forcing power curbs and raising shutdown risk for nuclear cooling. Danube Drought Fallout: The extreme low water levels are disrupting shipping and tourism and even exposing WWII wrecks along the river, while cruise operators scramble to change routes. Energy Policy Shift: The government adopted a new energy development plan, including expanded storage, grid upgrades, and wind power calls for proposals starting Aug 31. MOL–JANAF Pipeline Deal: MOL and JANAF quietly agreed a 2026 crude transport deal (2.05m tonnes) under take-or-pay, ending uncertainty after earlier disputes. Budapest–Belgrade Rail Timing: Passenger services on the upgraded Budapest–Belgrade line could start this autumn after final Hungarian safety tests and ETCS work. AI Governance for Hungary: A new Hungarian AI website (mihivatal.gov.hu) explains AI rules and lets users report deepfake and other AI rights violations. Budapest Security Alert: Szabadság Bridge and parts of the Danube embankment will close early Friday for removal of WWII-era explosives. Business & Compliance: Hungary’s Competition Authority fined Lidl for misleading customers, while a separate report highlights the hidden costs and risks of non-digital accounting for firms.

Energy & Heatwave Response: Hungary switched off decorative lights at major landmarks as Europe’s heatwave and wildfire risk escalated, while Italy put all major cities on the highest health alert and the EU pushed for more wildfire prevention spending. Danube Drought Hits Industry: Record-low Danube levels are stranding river cruise ships and forcing cargo operators to cut loads; the transport disruption is feeding into wider energy stress. Nuclear Power Under Pressure: Cooling-water limits from the drought have driven emergency electricity planning and raised fears around Paks, with analysts warning the GDP impact could be measurable if output is curtailed. Romania’s Emergency Measures: Romania delayed diverting Danube water via rock barges to keep Cernavodă running longer, underscoring how fast the situation is changing. Adriatic Oil Supply Deal: MOL and Croatia’s JANAF signed a take-or-pay agreement for 2026 crude transport, securing an alternative route after disputes over replacing Druzhba-linked supply. Airline Financial Strain: Wizz Air posted a near €200m first-quarter net loss as fuel costs rose and capacity expanded, with management pointing to a shift toward shorter routes. Retail Modernisation: Spar Hungary invested over HUF 1.8bn to modernise stores in Budapest and Dunakeszi, adding energy-saving equipment. Banking Leadership: Uzbekistan’s Ipoteka Bank confirmed Adam Szentpeteri’s CEO appointment within clearance requirements.

Danube Drought & Energy Shock: Hungary shut its only nuclear plant as record-low Danube levels threaten cooling, pushing electricity prices up and raising the stakes for market liberalisation and possible external help. Regional Climate Fallout: Across Europe, heat and dry rivers are disrupting shipping, power generation and supply chains, with the Rhine and Danube both under pressure. Wizz Air Earnings Hit by Fuel Costs: The Hungarian low-cost carrier swung to a £157m operating loss in Q2 as unit fuel costs jumped 21%, while it also flagged “extremely volatile” conditions ahead. Renewables Deal Watch: PPC Group is entering Poland by buying a 277.3 MW wind/solar portfolio from EDP Renewables, extending its clean-energy push across Hungary and the region. Crypto Regulation Scams: EU MiCA licensing transition is being exploited by fraudsters impersonating regulators and licensed firms, targeting customers moving funds. EU Migration Hardening: Poland urged the EU to tighten Ceuta-related rules, including automatic residence ineligibility for illegal entrants. Business & Consumer Signals: Hungary’s industrial output rebounded sharply in June, while retail sales growth eased. Hospitality & Leisure: Time Out confirmed its London flagship market at Piccadilly for 2028, betting on curated multi-operator footfall.

Danube Drought Hits Hungary’s Power System: Record-low Danube levels are forcing Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant to run at reduced capacity, with three of four reactors reportedly offline and the remaining unit at about 50%, raising fears of a full shutdown in the coming days. EU Heatwave Fallout: Across Europe, the Rhine and other rivers are shrinking, disrupting shipping, tourism and cooling for power generation, while governments and utilities scramble with emergency measures. Energy-Saving Moves in Hungary: Shell Hungary is suspending car washes and limiting EV charging to cut water and grid load, as households and businesses are urged to reduce electricity use to avoid higher costs. Local Business & Competition: Hungary’s Competition Authority fined Lidl for misleading customers, adding to the week’s pressure on retailers. Tech & Industry: Hungarian deep-tech Edortech is pushing its patented tin-alloy anode platform toward industrial validation, aiming at next-gen battery supply chains. AI Outsourcing Spotlight: Hungary ranks among the top AI-ready outsourcing destinations, scoring highest on population-level AI adoption in a new global index. Regional Energy Deals: Greenvolt agreed to sell a 57.47 MW Hungarian solar project to PPC Group, with an option for co-located battery storage.

Heat & Drought Shock: Europe’s heatwaves and wildfires have already driven over €3.1bn in damage in the first two months of the fire season, with the bill likely to grow as property, farming and tourism losses are still being counted. Energy Crunch in Hungary: With record-low Danube levels, Hungary’s grid is under strain and households and firms have been asked to cut power use; Paks’ last operational turbine is still running, but only as long as water levels stay above critical thresholds. Grid Risk Meets Finance: The ECB is warning that nature loss and extreme weather are becoming a financial stability risk for banks, linking ecosystem decline to credit and growth pressures. Danube Disruption: The drought is also crippling river trade and tourism, while exposing WWII wrecks and even Nazi warships along the Danube corridor. Rail Freight Upgrade: Hungary’s transport ministry says a key Budapest rail freight bridge will be replaced by 2029 under the Baross Gábor Railway Development Plan. Corporate Watch: Coca-Cola HBC lifted guidance after a strong first half, while Hungary’s leasing market grew 8.7% in H1. AI Jobs: A World Bank report finds AI job displacement risk is far higher in high-income countries than in lower-income economies.

Energy & Industry: Hungary’s electricity and nuclear risk story is back in focus as record-low Danube levels push the Paks plant to the edge again; PM Péter Magyar says the last turbine narrowly avoided a full shutdown, while Romania has used emergency measures to keep Cernavodă running—raising the stakes for grid stability, imports, and voluntary demand cuts. Climate & Logistics: The same drought/heat is squeezing Europe’s Rhine and Danube shipping and hydropower, driving up freight costs and forcing power curtailments across multiple countries. EU Energy Policy: The European Commission signals it will keep pursuing a full Russian energy ban despite supply challenges, while noting Hungary and Slovakia’s exceptions. Retail M&A Watch: Czech business media reports Tesco may exit Hungary, with banks reportedly preparing a sale that could split the Central European assets into packages. Media Governance: A 482-page dossier compiled by journalists at Hungary’s state news agency MTI alleges long-running manipulation of news under the Orbán era, now triggering an internal investigation by MTVA’s new leadership. Urban Development: Budapest approves the concept for a privately funded pedestrian bridge to Óbuda Island, aiming to improve local connectivity.

Nuclear Energy & Water Security: Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant narrowly avoided a full shutdown as the Danube’s level stopped falling and rose about 1.5cm, leaving only one turbine running at roughly 10–12% output; Prime Minister Péter Magyar said the country was “within millimetres” of a complete stop and urged firms and households to keep cutting electricity demand. Regional Energy Crisis: The drought is also forcing Romania to divert Danube cooling water by blasting rock to build a temporary dam, while governments across the region are tightening consumption and leaning on imports as river-fed power and transport take hits. EU Climate Policy Debate: Ten EU member states are pushing to weaken or delay emissions trading rules, arguing it would hurt competitiveness and households, while Hungarian climate advocates counter that carbon pricing can support growth when revenues are recycled. Real Estate (M&A): Appeninn, a Hungary-based investor, bought a €100m+ retail portfolio in Poland from Dekada, adding 11 properties and €10m+ gross annual rent. Tech & Telecom: Vodafone’s approach to 5G radio access networks highlights why Samsung won’t be “revived” without a Huawei ban. Business & Markets: Deutsche Bank’s price survey shows iPhone 17 Pro is cheapest in Japan and most expensive in Hungary within Europe, reflecting VAT and local taxes.

Energy & Water Crisis: Record-low Danube levels in Budapest (around 10 cm) are forcing Hungary’s only nuclear plant at Paks to run at a tiny fraction of capacity and face a possible full shutdown for the first time in 44 years, with PM Péter Magyar warning of the “most critical five days” and urging peak-hour electricity cuts while the government weighs imports and demand management. Regional Power Fallout: Romania is also in emergency mode, including detonating a rock outcrop to redirect cooling water to Cernavodă, while both countries increasingly rely on costly cross-border power as heatwave demand rises. Transport & Business Impact: Drought is hitting European rivers beyond the Danube, with the Rhine at record lows in Germany and the Netherlands, disrupting shipping, raising costs, and squeezing earnings for river-dependent industries. Policy & Cooperation: Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico says Bratislava is ready to help Hungary if the Paks-linked energy crisis worsens. Energy Markets: Falling oil and renewed US-Iran diplomacy have eased European gas prices, but the Danube-driven nuclear curtailments keep power risk elevated. Other Business Signals: Greenvolt Power inaugurated a 200 MW / 800 MWh battery storage project in Poland, adding grid flexibility as heat and drought stress systems.

Energy Security Under Heatwave: Hungary is in its “most critical five days” as record-low Danube levels threaten the first full shutdown of Paks in 44 years; PM Péter Magyar says the last operating turbine may stop late Sunday or Monday, with the plant potentially idle for weeks, while the government urges evening electricity cuts and has so far avoided mandatory curbs thanks to voluntary savings. Grid Stress Measures: A decree now allows disconnection of major industrial users if voluntary reductions fall short, with hundreds of companies already cutting demand to ease pressure on the grid. Regional Ripple Effects: Romania has declared a nationwide August power emergency after drought slashed Danube-fed generation; one Cernavodă reactor was shut and authorities are redirecting water to keep the remaining unit running, with imports expected to rise sharply. Water Logistics Hit: Low river levels are also disrupting inland shipping across Europe, pushing freight costs up and raising supply risk. Telecom Performance: Magyar Telekom leads Hungary’s fixed broadband rankings in an Opensignal report, with fibre reach and gigabit plans standing out. AI Push in Europe: The EU launched a call for up to seven AI Gigafactories, backed by up to €10bn public funding and aiming to unlock at least €20bn in private investment. MOL Expands Gas Portfolio: MOL agreed to buy Shell’s BG Cyprus stake for up to $720m, targeting the Aphrodite field and boosting its Eastern Mediterranean E&P pipeline.

Energy Crisis: Hungary is preparing for a “critical” five days as record-low Danube levels force the complete shutdown of the Paks nuclear power plant for the first time in 44 years; the plant’s output has already fallen to about 10% as cooling water intake is strained, and the government is urging businesses and households to cut or shift electricity use during peak hours (5pm–10pm), with rail freight and other measures also on the table. Regional Power Stress: Romania is taking emergency steps to keep Cernavodă running, including controlled interventions to improve Danube flow, while Hungary boosts electricity imports and coordinates with neighbors. Heat & Drought Fallout: The broader European heatwave is disrupting shipping and tourism along major rivers, underlining how climate-driven water shortages are now hitting core infrastructure. Cross-Border Business Context: Separately, Hungary’s retail and consumer economy continues to move—Lidl reports strong results—while European EV demand shows a split between Kia’s rising registrations and Hyundai’s decline. Migration & Border Politics: Spain has installed a sea barrier at Ceuta after a deadly migrant surge, reigniting EU border and migration tensions.

Energy Crisis in Hungary: Record-low Danube levels have forced Hungary’s only operating nuclear plant, Paks, into its first full shutdown in 44 years, with output cut to 240 MW before going offline as heatwave conditions worsen. Emergency Power Measures: The government is rolling out nationwide energy-saving steps, including possible disconnections for large industrial users and temporary rail freight curbs during peak hours to protect the grid. Agriculture Under Pressure: A Hungarian agricultural economist warns drought could cost 470–500 billion forints, hitting crops and then livestock, processing and food supply chains. Local Water Disruptions: Szentendre residents faced drinking-water shortages due to overburdened capacity, with tanker trucks and water bags deployed while authorities urge conservation. EU Industrial Push: The European Commission is opening a call for next-generation AI “Gigafactories” to attract up to €30bn total investment, aiming to boost Europe’s computing capacity. Retail Update: Lidl Magyarorszag reported 2025 business-year net profit of HUF 34.6bn and plans continued reinvestment in Hungary. Diplomatic Reshuffle: Hungary recalled 25 ambassadors, including posts in Washington, London, Brussels, Moscow and Kyiv, as part of a broader diplomatic overhaul.

Energy Crisis: Hungary is moving fast to cut electricity demand as record-low Danube levels threaten Paks, the country’s main power source. The government says Paks output has been slashed again (down to around 480–960 MW in reports) and a full shutdown could happen as early as this weekend, with large consumers facing voluntary reductions and possible sanctions. Rail & Grid Measures: To save power during peak hours, Hungary will suspend most freight trains from 5:00–10:00 pm starting Monday, with essential services exempt. Local Costs: Budapest taxi fares rise from today, including higher base, per-kilometre and per-minute charges, plus a new fixed airport surcharge for trips to/from Budapest Ferenc Liszt Airport. Energy Trade Watch: The US extended NIS’s operating licence until August 28, keeping Serbia’s oil refinery running while talks continue around MOL’s involvement. Diplomacy & Business Ties: Hungary recalled 25 ambassadors in a major reshuffle, including posts in Washington, London, Brussels, Moscow and Kyiv. Regional Cooperation: Hungarian and Slovenian foreign ministers agreed to deepen economic and cross-border cooperation, with trade topping EUR 4.6bn in 2025. Governance Probe: Hungary launched an investigation into the relocation of Slovak Roma families, focusing on who organised and financed moves and whether property deals and loans were lawful.

Energy Crisis at Paks: Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant is set for a full shutdown for the first time in decades as record-low Danube water levels undermine cooling, with output already cut to about half and a complete powerdown expected within days; officials stress safety and urge households and businesses to shift high electricity use (EV charging, air conditioning) away from 5pm–10pm. Budapest Power-Saving Moves: The capital is slowing metro and tram services and temporarily swapping some trolleybuses for diesel buses, plus adjusting charging schedules for electric buses and MOL Bubi bikes to cut electricity demand. MOL–NIS Deal Gets Breathing Room: The US Treasury extended a sanctions licence for Serbia’s NIS until August 28, allowing operations and talks with MOL, while negotiations continue over MOL’s planned acquisition of the Russian stake and a possible UAE minority role. Industrial Prices Softening: Hungary’s industrial producer prices fell year-on-year in June, with domestic output up but non-domestic prices down, pointing to weaker external pricing pressure. Education Overhaul: The education ministry says the post-2016 school administration model was “dysfunctional,” citing excessive central approvals and control gaps, and pledges a reset. GDP Growth Holds Up: Hungary’s economy grew 1.7% in Q2, driven mainly by services, while agriculture weighed.

Energy Crisis in Hungary: Record-low Danube levels from drought and heat have forced Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant to cut output to about half (around 965 MW) and could shut it down within days, with the government urging power saving during peak hours. EU Energy Coordination: The European Commission is preparing an emergency Electricity Coordination Group meeting as the shutdown would remove up to 2,000 MW of generation and tighten regional supply. Renewables Push: Hungary unveiled one of its biggest renewable programmes in decades, targeting 4 GW of new wind by 2030 plus major grid upgrades and storage to cushion the shock. MOL-Shell Deal: Shell agreed to sell its BG Cyprus unit to MOL for up to $720m, while Cyprus officials say they should have a say in the approval process. MVM Board Changes: New chairs and members were appointed to the boards of state energy company MVM, including András Tótth as board chair. Corporate M&A Roundup: This week also saw major deals including Brookfield buying Aypa Power for $7bn and KKR buying Energy Capital, underlining continued deal momentum despite the energy stress. Waterways Hit Business: Reuters reports low river levels are already curbing transport, power output and earnings across Europe, with Hungary and Romania among the hardest hit.

Energy Security & Climate Impact: Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant is at risk of full shutdown within 24–72 hours as the Danube hits record-low levels, with cooling pump intake now below the river level; the operator says emergency procedures are ready and output could be cut further if conditions worsen. Regional Gas Infrastructure: Plinacro and Hungary’s FGSZ agreed to double capacity on the Croatia–Hungary interconnector at Drávaszerdahely–Donji Miholjac to 400,000 standard cubic meters per hour from Dec. 31, 2026, boosting supply flexibility. Corporate Energy Deal: MOL signed with Shell to buy Shell’s BG Cyprus stake (35%) in the Aphrodite deepwater gas project, with a price up to $720m and first gas targeted for 2031 after a 2027 final investment decision. Macroeconomy: Hungary’s Q2 GDP grew 1.7% year-on-year (1.6% adjusted), with services and industry driving expansion while agriculture lagged. Payments & Fintech: Wise gained direct access to Malaysia’s PayNet to support DuitNow QR payments, adding another domestic-rail connection beyond its already active Hungary link. Agriculture: A heatwave’s impact is mixed across the region; Romania’s winter crops look resilient while Hungary faces stronger pressure, according to EU JRC reporting. Policy & Markets: Hungary’s wind expansion plan is moving from concept to implementation, with a tender for 4 GW by 2030 starting with a 700 MW auction, alongside calls for ecological safeguards and circular-economy rules. Business Community: Young European co-operators and entrepreneurs met in Budapest to push “economic democracy” via youth-led cooperative entrepreneurship.